1 and A shares more than 20 trillion market capitalization compared to the social security fund investments total some $ 10 billion drop in the bucket, but the social security funds at this time allowed to enter the market, the larger significance of the policy signal.
(2) cancel the taxes on dividends, which can stabilize the market confidence in the short term, they can foster long-term investment philosophy of capital markets, enhance the attractiveness and vitality of capital markets.
3 suspension of new share issue will help to maintain market stability. IPO investors, not only in the old grab the money, but also in high stealing money.
4 The current stock market continued to fall, trading more depressed, lower stamp duty rate is also beneficial to the people to effectively protect the interests of investors.
5 Stabilization Fund, also known as intervention fund, the securities market through the reverse operation, smoothing volatility in the stock market irrationality, to stabilize the stock market purposes.
Comments from the party newspaper, to appeal suspended the recent market shares continued to fall ... ... in the bailout sound emerging. At the same time, reduce the stamp duty on securities transactions call was underway, there are experts that in order to guide the investors to become more involved in long-term investment in an effort to abolish taxes on dividends can also be considered. In addition, the establishment of the Stabilization Fund, to encourage the social security fund approach, has also become shareholders of hope.
Guess one: to increase the social security fund approach
Introduced the possibility of: ★ ★ ★ ★
Market began to hope the introduction of positive measures in the management of A shares fell out of the quagmire. Yesterday, finally passed a number of positive factors, reported more than 10 billion social security fund recently approved by the relevant meetings, last week allocated to the social security account, and choose to invest in the stock market.
Some analysts pointed out that although the current A-share circulation of more than 20 trillion yuan of market value compared to the social security fund investments total some $ 10 billion drop in the bucket, but the social security funds at this time allowed to enter the market, the larger significance of the policy signal. From past experience, social security funds into the market as the market has been a big plus, especially in the stock market downturn, when the news came out of social security funds into the market, is also considered management's "rescue "the.
Chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council Dai was revealed in March this year, as of December 31, 2010, the Social Security Fund for the total size of funds managed 856.8 billion yuan. Dai also said that this year in investment management and meticulous hard work, the rational allocation of various types of assets, equity investment portfolio increased commission, stability and increase investment in equities. Increase the equity of unlisted companies and equity investment funds, and expand the scope of foreign investment and the amount.
According to reports, the Social Security Fund of funds have two parts, the central raised the national social security fund, in which the end of 2010 accumulated to 781 billion yuan fund equity, more than five years ago more than 5800 yuan; the second is to do the end of 2010 the central subsidies to local the individual account funds accumulated 566 billion yuan.
It is understood that, as of end of June 2011, China's "National Social Security Fund" total assets (market value) has exceeded 9,000 billion yuan, according to the law, it is for investment funds and equities shall not exceed 40%, about 360 billion yuan.
According to industry analysts, the social security fund's investment portfolio, stock market capitalization of not less than 80% of total assets entrusted. In the investment rate, the Social Security Fund's initial portfolio of assets entrusted to investment period of only 3 months. In other words, when the social security fund after the transfer of funds manager, in positions within three months the stock market value of the portfolio will reach 80% of the total market value, so the speed should be said that the market is relatively fast.
Conjecture 2: the abolition of dividend tax
Introduced the possibility of: ★ ★ ★ ★
Experts believe that in the case of the current stock market downturn, already has a "reduction" or "temporary duty" conditions of the stock dividend tax, the abolition of taxes on dividends, which can stabilize the market confidence in the short term, they can foster long-term capital markets, investment philosophy, enhance the attractiveness and vitality of capital markets. State Administration of Taxation Science Research Institute Liu Zuo said, even the abolition of dividend tax relief, can lead individual investors to participate in more long-term investment in the past.
Many market participants also believe that the abolition of dividend tax for the current downturn in the market should be substantial positive. On the one hand, this will restore the confidence of investors play a very big role; In addition, can really help people, it is equivalent to some of the money stock increases, so should the current market will play a more important driving role.
In fact, with the October 8, 2008 the State Council Jueding temporarily exempt from tax interest on deposits, after the stock dividend tax relief on the endless Hu Sheng. Some experts expect, such as the abolition of the stock dividend tax a year, about $ 20 billion for investors to increase the return on investment. This $ 20 billion if it is used to continue to invest in the stock market can bring to the incremental funding; if used for consumption, you can effectively stimulate domestic demand.
It is understood that the implementation of China's stock dividend tax is 20% halved, or 10%, the carrying amount of cash from investors, the actual dividend income is the amount of 90%. In the ex-dividend date, dividend stocks opening reference price is the implementation of the dividend amount by 100%. As a result, the stock has not opened, the investor's stock market value of the account has shrunk. Therefore, investors in listed companies are not interested in dividends, which to some extent, inhibit the enthusiasm of dividends of listed companies.
Conjecture 3: delayed IPO
Introduced the possibility of: ★ ★ ★
A-share market since mid-July continued to decline since the late, not only by the outer disk crash impact, but because the stock market depends mainly on the maintenance funds, state funds face is tight. The A-share market financing, such as floods, caught investors fled.
According to statistics, so far this year, a total of 202 companies IPO, on average each month, 25 companies listed. This week's issue prospectus or the size of China's hydropower financing over $ 20 billion, and the next, and super-large-cap stocks Shaanxi Coal shares and fund-raising 17.2 billion yuan. In addition, there are 131 companies this year, implementation of the additional financing options, including 124 private placement to raise funds for the more than 3200 billion yuan; seven public companies to raise additional funds over 10 billion yuan, the two together to reach 33 billion . Liquidity is not sufficient in this year, a large number of IPO and refinancing of blood from the market, how can the market do not fall.
Just 20 years, A-share market to have the scale today, apparently misappropriating big listed companies with closely related behavior, but also with regulatory authorities related to positioning errors for the stock market. Currently, A-share market listing more than 2,500 listed companies, while the U.S. market reached more than 3,600 listed companies, is used over 200 years. It can be seen, a listed company "misappropriating" how violent behavior, not to mention this does not include those frequent refinancing of listed companies.
Insiders said that the formation of a certain market value of listed shares, the stock market, the market value of listed companies will reduce accordingly. Blue chips lower and lower valuations, the original price-earnings ratio is 20 times the normal level, then 10 times, and now seven or eight times, the valuation seems to fall into the bottomless pit. In contrast to the IPO price-earnings ratio, remained at 30, 40 times, and in which there may be performance packaging and other factors, many of IPO first-day gain still more than 30%. IPO investors, not only in the old grab the money, but also in high stealing money.
"Suspend the IPO will help maintain market stability." Some analysts pointed out that the current round of adjustment mainly in Europe and America, and the deteriorating economic situation caused by the imbalance between market supply and demand. Although the foreign economy can improve, we can not, but A-share supply and demand imbalances can change.
Conjecture 4: reduction in stamp duty
Introduced the possibility of: ★ ★ ★
Since the October 2007 stock index hit a high point since 6124, investors earn less loss, but revenue stamp duty move is unshakeable. Statistics show that, even in the Shanghai Composite Index fell 14.31% in 2010 against the backdrop of stamp duty on securities transactions in 2010 revenue 54.417 billion yuan. Insiders pointed out that in the case of the current stock market downturn, reduced stamp duty can stabilize market confidence.
Great Britain and the Securities Institute of Lida Xiao (microblogging), said at the periphery fragile nature of the expected relaxation of macroeconomic policy is not honored, the absence of sufficient market confidence, to further adjust the stamp duty on securities transactions, which is desirable. Experts said that in the current stock market continued to fall, the more sluggish in the context of the transaction, reduced stamp duty rate is also beneficial to the people to effectively protect the interests of investors.
China's stock market has become an important platform for finance and investment people. According to statistics of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, as of September 16, 2011, Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share accounts 160 000 000, B-share accounts 2,518,300; valid account 138 million.
Analyst believes that after the reduction in stamp duty, which attract new capital into the market, and promote active trading market will play a positive role. Stamp duty rate as the control lever, its bound to affect the changes in the structure of the stock market, turnover, activity, price level, and every change in stamp duty in the short term will be on the market play a larger positive or negative stimulus. In the long run, a dramatic decline in transaction costs will also greatly facilitate the market was active, long-term trend on the stock market will play an active role.
In an interview with a fellow broker macro "investment newsletter" reporters pointed out that a healthy development of the stock market, not only to provide effective direct financing, strengthening the physical basis for economic development, but also increase income, the ability to effectively boost consumer to promote the expansion of domestic demand. In the current context of the stock market stumble endlessly, through reduced stamp duty, etc. is necessary to stabilize market confidence.
Guess five: the establishment of the Stabilization Fund
Introduced the possibility of: ★ ★
Stabilization Fund, also known as intervention fund, is the enactment of specific institutions such as the Commission, the Ministry of Finance, exchanges and other ways to establish a statutory fund. Such a fund could reverse the stock market through the operation, smoothing volatility in the stock market irrationality, to stabilize the stock market purposes.
From the perspective of international experience, through the establishment of the Stabilization Fund to stabilize markets, in line with international practice also effective. Japan in 1964, 512.7 billion yen investment in the establishment of the Stabilization Fund, the total market capitalization and annual turnover of 6.9% and 9% the following year's stock market rose 50%; South Korea in 1990 to establish $ 10 billion stabilization fund, accounting for The total market capitalization and annual turnover of 8.9% and 8.4%, the basic stability of the stock market; Taiwan in 1996 and invested NT $ 200 billion stabilization fund set up, the end of the total market capitalization and trading volume of 4.2% and 1.9%, the stock market reversal ; Hong Kong in 1998 and 120 billion Hong Kong dollars to establish the Stabilization Fund, the total market capitalization and annual turnover of 6.2% and 4.2%, but also to reverse the stock market, the Hong Kong government is therefore earned more than 1,000 billion dollars.
Some analysts believe that the stock market if not timely boost, the negative effect will be directly transmitted to the other levels, and may have an adverse impact on the consumer market. From the current A-share market's current trend, the establishment of the stock market stabilization fund is necessary. Senior also pointed out that A-share market is now "leaking every night rain" popularity had begun to waver, if management is not in this case the decisive shot, after the cost may be greater.
Investors are also told reporters the government expressed a desire to rescue the market: "the establishment of the Stabilization Fund, can be sluggish when shot in the stock market, play a role in the fuse; When the stock market or too large, may be through the sale of shares to increase the supply, depression speculative atmosphere; to avoid market fluctuations and protect the interests of medium and small investors. "
Then, once the stabilization fund launched, the part of the funds and will come from? Industry experts said that some funds may come from three aspects. One is the Ministry of Finance funds, the other is Huijin, the third is the China Securities Investor Protection Corporation.
No comments:
Post a Comment